Assignment Task:
Task:
1. The management of Brinkley Corporation is interested in using simulation to estimate the profit per unit for a new product. The selling price for the product will be $45 per unit. Probability distributions for the purchase cost, the labor cost, and the transportation cost are estimated as follows:
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Cost ($) Probability Labor Cost
($) Probability
Transportation
Cost ($) Probability
10 0.25 20 0.10 3 0.75
11 0.45 22 0.25 5 0.25
12 0.30 24 0.35
25 0.30
a. Compute profit per unit for the base-case, worst-case, and best-case scenarios.
b. Construct a simulation model to estimate the mean profit per unit.
c. Why is the simulation approach to risk analysis preferable to generating a variety of what-if scenarios?
d. Management believes the project may not be sustainable if the profit per unit is less than $5. Use simulation to estimate the probability the profit per unit will be less than $5.
2. The management of Madeira Computing is considering the introduction of a wearable electronic device with the functionality of a laptop computer and phone. The fixed cost to launch this new product is $300,000. The variable cost for the product is expected to be between $160 and $240, with a most likely value of $200 per unit. The product will sell for $300 per unit. Demand estimates for the product vary widely, ranging from 0 to 20,000 units, with 4000 units the most likely.
a. Compute profit for the base-case, worst-case, and best-case scenarios.
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